Canada
United States
New Zealand
Australia
Ireland
The Super Mario Bros Movie is poised to be a huge box office hit this weekend, with an estimated $225 million-plus opening frame, making it the year’s best worldwide opening for an MPA title. Illumination/Universal’s latest animation release is opening in 70 offshore markets, including France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Australia, and China.
The film, the first proper adaptation of the 38-year-old video game, boasts a star voice-over cast that includes Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Fred Armisen, Keegan-Michael Key, and more. The movie has also received a boost from spring break, with Good Friday seeing 80% of K-12 and 31% of colleges on break.
A Critic-Proof Movie
The film has yet to be reviewed on Rotten Tomatoes, but its star-studded cast and faithful depiction of the game are expected to make it critic-proof.
The previous Disney-released live-action feature based on the Nintendo video game in 1993, starring the late Bob Hoskins as Mario, John Leguizamo as Luigi, and Dennis Hopper as King Koopa, was a failure with fans who felt that it was not faithful to the original games.
Box Office Figures
The movie is expected to make over $125 million in the U.S. and Canada in 4,000 theaters from Wednesday to Sunday. The rest of the $225 million-plus will be earned abroad.
When compared to the previous record opening for a video game feature adaptation, Paramount/Sega’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72.1M U.S. a year ago), Super Mario Bros is ahead of the blue protagonist across the board in first choice, men over/under 25, and women over/under 25.
The Illumination/Universal’s Minions: Rise of Gru posted the best opening for an animated movie during the Covid era with a $107M three-day and $123M four-day cume. The rise of Gru finalized at nearly $370M and $939.6M worldwide.
Offshore Comps
The movie is expected to open big in China, though the current mercurial nature of the market calls for a cautious approach. Other offshore markets are looking at Illumination titles and pandemic- and Easter corridor releases. As of now, Super Mario Bros leads presales on Wednesday in China.
The biggest offshore market for the movie is 2015’s Minions at $111.5M in like-for-like markets and at today’s rates. Next, is 2019’s Toy Story 4 at $100.4M, followed by 2017’s Despicable Me Three at $94.4M. When including China, Despicable Me 3 skyrocketed to $159M.
‘Air’ – Another Debut Film
Older adult-skewing films have had a mixed reception in the post-Covid market. Also releasing this week is Ben Affleck’s adult-skewing Air from Amazon Studios, Skydance Sports, Artists Equity, and Mandalay Pictures.
The movie is about how Nike locked down basketball icon Michael Jordan in his youth to create the Air Jordan sneaker. The film is being released in 3,500 theaters, and its five-day total is pegged between $16M-$18M. Men and women over 25 are the target audience. There is hope in the industry that this inspirational underdog comedy can become a hit this spring.
